Changes to pathogen fitness as a result of population growth, ageing and migration

Abstract

Pathogen fitness is driven by how its human and animal hosts interact with each other and the environment to create patterns of susceptibility and transmission. This project aims to use host, pathogen and environmental data from East Asia to understand the drivers of pathogen fitness and characteristics of pathogens that may emerge in the future. Computational simulations of real and hypothetical pathogens will be constructed using host demography and pathogen transmission models that track fitness as a function of host contact patterns, demographic and susceptibility profiles, and other ecological and environmental drivers.




References:
[1]

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Morris SE et al. Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics. J R Soc Interface. 2015;12(104):20141245.

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Pitzer VE et al. Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics. Science 2009;325(5938):290-4.

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Fuller TL et al. Predicting hotspots for influenza virus reassortment. Emerg Infect Dis 2013; 19(4):581-8.

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Lloyd-Smith JO et al. Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens. Epidemics 2015; 10:35-39.


Biological Areas:

Microbiology
Evolution

BBSRC Area:

Plants, microbes, food and sustainability