The aim of this project is to model the emergence, spread and establishment of emerging zoonoses in livestock and humans using a combination of mathematical modelling, data collection and analysis. These methods will be used in several case studies to investigate the steps of emergence from spillover to stuttering chains of transmission all the way to full-blown epidemics. The results will increase our understanding of the interaction between the dynamics of zoonoses in the zoonotic reservoir between outbreaks and associated spillover, as well as the social and ecological drivers and amplifiers of emergence that determine the risk of large outbreaks.
Lloyd-Smith, James O. and George, Dylan and Pepin, Kim M. and Pitzer, Virginia E. and Pulliam, Juliet R. C. and Dobson, Andrew P. and Hudson, Peter J. and Grenfell, Bryan T. Epidemic Dynamics at the Human-Animal Interface. Science, 2013, 326 (5958): 1362—1367.
Funk, S.; Nishiura, H.; Heesterbeek, H.; Edmunds, W. J. & Checchi, F. Identifying transmission cycles at the human-animal interface: the role of animal reservoirs in maintaining gambiense human african trypanosomiasis. PLoS Comput Biol, 2013, 9, e1002855
Jones, K.E.; Patel, N.G.; Levy, M.A.; Storeygard, A.; Balk, D.; Gittlemen, J.L. & Daszak, P. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451, 990-993
Brierley, L.; Vonhof, M.; Olival, K. J.; Daszak, P.; Jones, K. E. Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-based Perspective. American Naturalist, 2016, 187: E53-E64 5